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市场先知:新能源车,大多驶向绝路|行业论文中英文模板|英语助手官网

发表时间:2015-11-10  来源:www.yingyuzhushou.com  作者:yingyuzhushou.com  浏览次数:1765  
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新能源车真是一个热门话题,看涨的人很多,看淡的人也不少。有几十个看了前几篇市场先知的读者来邮件让我也谈谈对新能源车的看法,现实中居然也有朋友问我投资新能源车产业有多大风险。
  从投资角度看新能源车行业投资风险真不好讲,一是因为投资已经市场化了,投资的回报除了产品经营赢利一条路子外,已经有了各式各样的手段来获得回报,很多明明在消费市场不挣钱的东西,资本一样玩得红红火火赚得金银满盆,一如互联网行业的众多公司,一无眼前的赢利能力,未来赢利或生存都难的一样有人投资,并且投资还能转手赚钱。二如各种可以向政府申请取得大量资金投入的行业,产品没人消费,人家公司一样活得不错,投资一样挣大钱并能挣快钱。其实风投也好战略投资也好,只要能把投资的企业包装好,有关系有能力让其他人接下一轮盘子就有大钱赚了,产品经营的好不好关系并不大。所以巴菲特能投资比亚迪。二是因为投资目的的不单纯性,有机构投资电动车和氢电池车不一定指望人家厂家电动车市场,却是盯着电池新技术去的,他们能把这类电池的新技术用到其他产业并获利。
  但是从消费角度出发看问题,就会发现现在大多数新能源车的开发方向和做法是没有消费市场的,只要是需要集中并频繁补充能源的新能源车都将面临市场消费的绝路。
  我国市场消费的实际环境,有以下三点阻碍了需要集中并频繁补充能源的新能源车的消费市场形成,并且这些阻碍基本无法铲除。
  一、传统利益格局让集中式的新能源补充站已经没有下脚之地。
  在我国传统车行业得利最多的是加油供应系统,而加油站也已经在城市能布点地方都建站了,并且这些加油站要麽是我国两大国有巨头中石化、中石油所建,要麽已经被他们收购。
  在这种形下,要集中补充能源的电动车充电站、氢燃料电池车加氢站、煤制甲醇的加醇站能建在什麽地方,又有什麽地方还空着能给你建站?
  也人说,我利用原有加油站点来布局就行了。可是人家凭什麽让你借用站点,人家的油又不是没利润或低利润,人家又不傻,把站点给新能源共享把自己革命掉,可能吗?
  以最容易与现有加油站供应体系共用的煤制甲醇为例。十多年前用煤生产的纯甲醇,就在煤产区的山西出现,并有政府出面推广。前几年在陜西、近年在上海也开始试点甲醇替代汽油。纯甲醇是好东西,产品本质不错,零售价格只有汽油的三分之一,使用成本也比汽油低近一半,替代上很方便汽油车只花一千多块钱几分钟时间改装喷油装置比油改液化汔还简单方便,加油站的设备也只要简单改装就全部可以用在甲醇上,行驶使用的感觉也与汽油没有什麽区别不像液化汽一样给人没力量的感觉,环保方面也得到环保专家的一致认可,因为甲醇作为一种碳化合物其碳原因子比汔油少好几倍,明显的低碳环保产品。
  从消费的角度看这东西多好啊,现在的汽油车就能使用,花钱少、感觉又好还环保。可事实是消费者喜欢未必能消费到。现有的利益获得者可不一定乐意让他们的消费者接触使用甲醇,就跟柯达不愿意让消费者使用数码相机一样,虽然数码相机还是他们最先发明的。
  甲醇替代汽油在试点中就倒在了建立加醇站上,如上海搞了好多年也就上海焦化厂在自己的地盘建有一个甲醇加註站,其他处没地方给他们建站,随着传统加油站越建越多就越没地方。上海焦化的目标是通过当地政府支持让全市出租车用上甲醇,但因甲醇加註站的局限打不开局面,于是他们想到利用和借用现有加油站,政府企业自然有政府资源可用,可是地方上没有民营加油站时,地方政府碰到中央企业也没招,不可能行政强制让中石化、中石油,只好商业谈判,谈判结果不用说,大家也知道。人家凭什麽让自己牺牲利润来成就上海焦化。
  上海焦化的母公司上海华谊集团通过电视及报媒向社会报怨“几个月谈下来,中石化要求每卖出多产品要按结算价支付相应提成,价格体系要中石化说了算,中间赚多钱均归中石化,中石化把甲醇价格定得比汽油还高那对消费者还有什麽意义,希望政府出面打破垄断。”
  2010年8月中石化总裁王天普在中期业绩发布会就明确表示,不希望甲醇投放市场也没有推广使用甲醇的必要。
  利用和借用不了现有加油渠道,又不可能把路边的高楼请城管大军给强拆了,甲醇加註站自然无地方可建。同理那些充电站、加氢站一样无地可建。建立不了站点依靠集中能源补充的新能源车就是扯蛋。能消费的都是可以建站的车,如公交车可以在公交系统自己的地盘建立充电站,电动车就可以大量使用。
  二、正常消费者不会在能源补充站不足的情况下使用这类新能源车。
  电动轿车的制造商和投资商又向社会鼓吹,在停车场,停车点建立充电桩,停车就能充电,一为消费者节省时间,二能扩大社会投资带来经济效应。这是一个典型忽悠下个接盘人的瞎吹。
  消费者不会在充电桩不多,充电不方便的情况下买车。而停车场也不会在充电车不多的情况下先花大价钱建充电桩空放着等很长时间来等消费者买车,然后慢慢挣钱,这要多少年才能收回投资,并且还面临有投无回的风险,除去资本市场现实中谁会做。电动车厂无论是特斯拉还是比亚迪自己建立充电站充电桩也就是做做样子,无法推广。
  其他依靠集中能源补充的新能源车也一样面对同样的局面,使得消费市场无法打开。
  现在购买这类新能源车的消费者基本上不是正常消费者,他们一部分人是有关系可以拿政府大量补贴,如比亚迪秦的购买者;一部分是为了时尚或面子进行炫耀消费,如我国购买特斯拉的人。
  正常消费者不可能为了补充能源,花太多功夫跑太远,一是成本高二是没闲时间用在能源补充上,正常消费者购买替代产品是为让自己更方便而不是更麻烦,是为让自己更享受而不是承担更大风险。电单车能普及很多城市是因为电单车充电简单方便,从车上拿出电瓶手拎着回家就可以充电,出门时带上装好多方便。
  依靠集中能源补充的新能源车无疑陷入了一个,消费量不够无法建立能源补充站,能源补充站少无法启动消费的死循环中。
  三、科技爆炸式发展使得自由能源技术快速成熟让要集中能源补充的车没有生存空间。
  科技这玩意儿,要麽不发展,要麽就会爆炸式发展。当普通人还在听外界讨论未来可能发生能源危机时,专业科技领域已经有了方便、简单又低成本的自由能源技术。
  光能的利用也是日新月异,薄膜发电,低成本薄膜发电也变得越来越现实可行,某天大家见车盖车盖铺着的薄膜就能利用光能发电为轿车补充部分动力,大家不要觉得奇怪。
  风能的利用也越发成熟,微风的利用也不再是什麽太难的事。连北京的郊区老农唐振平自己凭个力量就搞出了电池畜电和风力发电的小跑车时速可达140仅是,一般两天只需要在家充一次电,跑起来就可以依靠风力解决大部分电。
  空气动力发电机,已经研究成功,人家用一度电能发30度电,一般人不可想象吧。磁能发电机在国外也被人搞定,水能循环发电也成了现实。
  说远了对大家没有意义,太专业的机构太过高大上,大家不觉得震撼。我们可以看看山东刘金军这个农民电工出身的普通电力施工的中小厂家搞出来的风能太阳能电动车,样子简陋但人家却可以完全不依靠外来电网充电,凭车上的风力和太阳能发电机就可跑起来。风光能电力车,因多方面的原因要推向市场还有众多的问题要解决,但产品的发展方向和消费使用是对的。就算政府不让上牌,也可以用到不上公路的园区景区。
  自由能源车的出现,现在大力鼓吹依靠集中能源补充的新能源车就面临死局。

译文:
New energy vehicles is really a hot topic, bullish lot of people, a lot of people bearish. There are dozens read the first few market prophet readers to e-mail Let me also talk about the views of the new energy vehicles, in reality, actually a friend of mine asked me to invest in new energy vehicle industry have much risk.
From an investment perspective of new energy vehicle industry investment risk really bad talk, first, because the investment has been market-oriented, the return on investment in addition to a road outside profit products business, have a variety of means to get a return, a lot obviously In the consumer market, things do not make money, capital, as played with booming earn bowl full of gold and silver, as the Internet industry, many companies, a non-immediate profitability, future profitability or survival, like someone is immune investment, and Investment money can change hands. Two as the government can apply for a variety of significant capital investment in the industry, the product is not for human consumption, the company, like others live well, like investment and earn big money fast money. In fact, the strategic venture investment Ye Hao, as long as companies can invest packed, a relationship has the ability to let other people take over the large round dish had money, and good relations products business is not large. So Buffett's investment in BYD can. Second, because it is not simple investment purposes, there are institutional investors electric cars and hydrogen cell cars are not necessarily expect others manufacturers electric car market, but it is looking at new technology batteries to go, they can use new technology such batteries other Industry and profit.
But from the consumer point of view, you will find now the majority of new energy vehicles development direction and approach is no consumer market, as long as the need to focus on and frequently replenish energy new energy vehicles will face a dead end consumer market.
The actual environment of the consumer market, there is need to focus on the following three points impeded and frequently replenish energy consumption of new energy vehicles market form, and simply can not eradicate these obstacles.
First, the traditional pattern of interests so that centralized energy supplement new station has no leftover land.
In most of the traditional car industry profit is fueling supply system, and gas stations have also been able to place in the cities distribution station, and the station is either of these two state-owned giants Sinopec, PetroChina built, or they have been acquired .
In this form, add energy to focus on electric vehicle charging stations, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle hydrogen refueling station, plus alcohol, coal methanol stations can be built in any place, what place also give you empty station?
People also say that I use the original station points to the layout of the line. But people tell me you borrow sites, other people's oil is not never profit or low-profit, people not stupid, the site for the new energy revolution, shared his own off possible?
Most likely with the existing supply system common to gas station coal to methanol as an example. Ten years ago coal production of pure methanol in Shanxi coal producing areas appear, and government to promote. A few years ago in Shaanxi in recent years in Shanghai also started a pilot methanol instead of gasoline. Pure methanol is a good thing, nature of the product is good, the retail price is only one-third of the cost of gasoline is lower than gasoline by nearly half, is very convenient gasoline only spend a thousand dollars on alternative modified fuel injection means more than a few minutes Oil Liquefied Qi also easy to use, the gas station equipment is simply converted to methanol can be used in all, I feel with the use of gasoline is also no difference between liquefied gas and gives people did not like the feeling of power, environmental protection has also been unanimously approved environmental experts, because methanol as a carbon-carbon compound reason child several times less oil than Qi, clear low-carbon environmentally friendly products.
From the perspective of the consumer to see how wonderful this thing, and now gasoline vehicles will be able to use, less expensive, feel good and also environmentally friendly. The fact is that consumers like may not be able to consume. Winner of existing interests may not necessarily willing to let their customers contact with methanol, just do not want to let consumers use Kodak digital cameras, digital cameras, although still they first invented.
Methanol instead of gasoline in the pilot fell to the established stations plus alcohol, such as Shanghai to engage in a good many years will Shanghai coking plant in their territory has a methanol filling stations, no other place for them at the station, along with the traditional more to build more gas stations no place more. Shanghai Coking goal is supported by the local government to make the city's taxi spend methanol, but the limitations of methanol filling station opened up the situation, so they think of use and borrow existing gas stations, government enterprises naturally have government resources are available, but When no local private stations, local governments across central enterprises did not move, it is impossible to force the executive in the petrochemical, oil, had business negotiations, the result is needless to say, we all know. Why do people make their own sacrifice profits to the achievements Shanghai Coking.
Shanghai Coking parent company Shanghai Huayi Group, through television and newspaper media community complained to 'talk down a few months, Sinopec to sell more products according to the requirements of each settlement price paid the commission, the price system should have the final say in the petrochemical, intermediate earn more Money are owned by Sinopec, Sinopec to set the price of methanol gasoline is higher than that of the consumer, what significance, hope for the government to break the monopoly. '
In mid-August 2010 Wang Tianpu, president of Sinopec interim results press conference made it clear that he did not want to put on the market nor the methanol necessary to promote the use of methanol.
Fuel use and can not borrow existing channels, but also impossible to please rise roadside inspectors army to demolitions, methanol filling stations no natural place to build. Similarly those charging stations, hydrogen refueling station as no land can be built. Can not rely on the site to establish centralized energy supplement new energy vehicles is Chedan. Energy consumption are possible establishment of the car, as buses can build charging stations in the bus system's own site, the electric car can be a lot of use.
Second, the normal consumer does not use this type of new energy vehicles in low-energy supplementary station situation.
Electric car manufacturers and investors Youxiang social advocate, in the parking lot, parking spots establish charging pile, parking will be able to charge a save consumers time, two to expand social investment brings economic effects. This is a typical disk access Fudge next people brag.
Consumers will not charge pile small, inconvenient case of charging a car. The parking lot will not be charged in the case of small cars to pay big bucks to build charging pile stood empty wait a long time to wait for consumers to buy a car, then slowly make money, which is how many years to recover the investment, and There is also the risk of investment and no return, excluding capital market reality would do. Whether Tesla electric depot or BYD to establish their own charging station pile is posturing, not promote.
Others rely on centralized energy supplement new energy vehicles too face the same situation, so that the consumer market can not be opened.
Such consumers to buy new energy vehicles now basically not normal consumers, some of them there is a relationship can take massive government subsidies, such as BYD Qin buyers; partly for fashion or face were conspicuous consumption, such as our purchase special Tesla person.
To supplement the normal energy consumers can not spend too much effort to run too far, one sophomore is not idle time costs spent on energy supplement, normal consumers to buy alternative is to make themselves more convenient rather than the more cumbersome, is make you enjoy rather than to assume greater risk. Motorcycles to popularize many cities because motorcycles charging simple and convenient, take out the battery from the car carrying hand home can be charged, bring a lot of convenience when loading out.
Rely on centralized energy supplement of new energy vehicles is undoubtedly caught in a consumption of enough energy supplement station can not be established, less energy supplement stations can not start an infinite loop in consumption.
Third, the explosive growth of science and technology so that the free energy technology rapidly mature to focus energy supplement allows the car did not survive.
Technology this stuff, or do not develop, or it will explode development. When ordinary people still listen to the outside world when discussing possible future energy crisis, specializing in science and technology have convenient, simple and cost-free energy technologies.
Light energy utilization is changing, film generation, low-cost thin-film generation are becoming increasingly realistic, one day we see a car cover car cover covered with a thin film photovoltaics for cars can use complementary part of the power, I do not think Strange.
Use of wind energy has become more mature, no longer take advantage of the breeze is too difficult to do. Even Beijing's suburbs farmer Tang Zhenping own forces to come up with a battery of animal power and wind power generation small car at speeds up to 140 only, usually require only two days at home on one charge, running up and can rely on the wind to resolve most electricity .
Air power generators, has been successful research, people with power once made 30 kWh, most people unthinkable now. Magnetic energy generator in foreign countries also being done, water cycle power generation has become a reality.
That far away it does not make sense for everyone, too professional bodies too tall on, we do not feel shock. We can look at this farmer in Shandong Liu Jinjun electrician born general power to engage in the construction of small manufacturers out of wind and solar electric car, it looks simple but people can not rely on external power completely charged, with the car's wind and solar generators can run stand up. Scenery to power vehicles, due to various reasons the market there are many problems to solve, but the product development direction and consumer use is right. Even if the government will not let the cards can also be used without the park's scenic roads.
Free energy vehicles, it is now strongly advocated rely on centralized energy supplement new energy vehicles faced a dead end。
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